As the U.S. and Russia work to negotiate a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, China appears to be stepping in, seeking a role alongside Washington and Moscow in shaping a new world order.
China may be shifting its strategy, aiming to replicate the post-World War II Yalta Conference, where the U.S., the U.K., and the Soviet Union divided global spheres of influence and laid the foundation for international rules, analysts said, after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Beijing supports the “recent consensus” reached between the U.S. and Russia to end the Russo-Ukrainian war.
“China supports all efforts dedicated to peace, including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia,” Wang said in a statement released by China’s Foreign Ministry on Friday. “We hope that the relevant parties can find a sustainable and lasting solution that takes into account each other’s concerns. Acting on the wishes of the relevant parties and keeping in mind the concerns of the international community, especially those of the Global South, China will continue playing a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis.”
Wang also met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 meeting, with both appearing relaxed as they posed for a handshake.
In a statement, Wang described the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership as “advancing to a higher level and broader dimensions,” pledging to “work with Russia to fully implement the important common understandings reached between the two heads of state and further advance China-Russia relations in the new year.”
Lavrov, in turn, said he and Wang would meet again soon in Moscow, calling their frequent high-level interactions “necessary.”
“The global situation requires constant attention, exchange of information, and trust-based assessments, all of which are natural characteristics of our relations, which have been and are an important stability factor in the international situation and in preventing it from deteriorating to a total confrontation,” Lavrov said.
Observers noted a shift in Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine conflict. Despite Ukraine being absent from the U.S.-Russia negotiations, Wang did not reiterate China’s previous stance stating at the Munich Security Conference that “all stakeholders should participate in peace talks.”
When asked about this shift, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press conference on Friday that China’s position on the Ukraine crisis remains “consistent and clear.”
China’s ambition to shape a new global order
In the later stages of World War II in 1945, the Yalta Conference brought together U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin to shape the postwar international order, excluding China and several other war-affected nations.
With this year marking the 80th anniversary of the Yalta Conference, Wang notably referenced the “great historic significance” of the “victory of the World Anti-Fascist War and the founding of the United Nations” in his meeting with Lavrov.
A Nikkei Asia analysis suggests China is seeking to establish a “Yalta 2.0” framework, working with U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to divide global influence. The report also notes that “China eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role as a stepping stone toward a new world order.”
Strategic opportunity to improve U.S.-China ties
The shifting geopolitical landscape presents China with an opportunity to strengthen its influence, Hong Kong-based international affairs expert Wong Wai-kwok told Radio Free Asia.
The U.S. has “done a 180” by clashing with European allies in the Ukraine issue and pressuring Kyiv to end the war by offering land concessions and access to rare earth resources, Wong said.
“China may take the opportunity to take over all disconnected relations with the United States (NATO, Europe, etc.) to increase its international influence,” Wong said. “On the Ukraine issue, China’s stance of supporting the peace talks between the U.S. and Russia would bring the greatest benefits to China.”
However, Washington is unlikely to allow Beijing to dictate the terms, as it remains wary of Beijing’s military and technological ties with Moscow, as well as its large trade surplus with the U.S., he said, adding China’s role in the postwar reconstruction will depend on what it can offer in exchange.
Signs of a U.S.-China thaw
Despite the ongoing tensions, recent developments suggest a slight warming of relations between Washington and Beijing. After suspending the TikTok ban and the tariff on small-value packages from China, Trump suggested the possibility of negotiating a new trade deal with China and expressed interest in a potential visit from Chinese President Xi Jinping.
On Friday, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a virtual meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in which Beijing expressed “strong concerns” over U.S. tariffs and Washington raised concerns about trade imbalances.
Compared to the Biden administration’s approach of “competition, confrontation and cooperation,” Trump’s China policy leans toward “conditional cooperation,” seeking to advance U.S.-China relations on terms more favorable to Washington, according to media reports.
China may offer several concessions to secure U.S. sanctions relief. These could include supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction, helping maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula, investing in U.S. solar, electric vehicle, and battery industries, purchasing American exports, and reaffirming the role of the U.S. dollar as the dominant global currency, The New York Times reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials.
To read the original story in Chinese, click here.
