When the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff due to Chinese exports of chemicals used to make fentanyl, China quickly retaliated, escalating trade tensions. The move came amid concerns over whether U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping can reach a consensus on drug controls in the near future.
Fentanyl is a highly concentrated synthetic opioid that can be fatal in doses as low as 2 milligrams. While it is legal for use as a medical painkiller, its spillover into the illegal drugs trade has caused serious social problems for the United States over the past decade. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 107,000 people who died of drug overdose in the U.S. in 2023, of which 74,000 deaths were related to fentanyl.
Drug abuse is now the leading cause of death among Americans aged between 18 and 45, and the Trump administration has thus made the fight against fentanyl one of its top priorities after taking office. As China is at the top of the supply chain of fentanyl, the Trump administration this week slapped the first round of a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, with the aim of cracking down on exports of fentanyl ingredients. China has taken countermeasures, leading to a further deterioration in the already strained U.S.-China trade relationship.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, a narcotics expert at the Brookings Institute, told Radio Free Asia (RFA) about the potential discussion between Trump and Xi over fentanyl. “At this point, we can only speculate on what Trump will discuss with Xi. As Trump has made absolute demands on Canada and Mexico, insisting on a 100% halt to fentanyl influx... Therefore, he may demand that China completely stop exports of precursor chemicals. However, this is impossible. Not only is there difficulty in policy implementation, but many of these chemicals have legitimate uses.”
Andrew Harding, a research associate at the Center for Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., told RFA that Trump would be asking Xi Jinping to show greater resolve during their talk. “General Secretary Xi Jinping must take decisive action to curb the production and exports of fentanyl precursors through stricter regulation and enforcement. Despite President Trump’s negotiation skills, China has never been a reliable partner when it comes to curbing the production of fentanyl, Harding said.
Is Beijing dragging its feet?
One of the main focuses of discussion between the U.S. and China on the issue of fentanyl is China’s regulation of precursor chemicals. The U.S. believes that China has been slow to expand its list of controlled substances, and that its law enforcement isn’t up to the job.
According to a report released last September by the Council on Foreign Relations, China regulated two common fentanyl precursor chemicals in 2017, but Chinese manufacturers then switched to selling three unregulated alternatives — 4-AP, 1-boc-4-AP and norfentanyl. While the United Nations put these three chemicals on its restricted list in November 2022, China didn’t formally strengthen its supervision of the production and sale of these chemicals until August 2024.
When Washington put pressure on Beijing to step up its curbs on fentanyl, China replied by repeating that China is one of the strictest countries in the world when it comes to the fight against drugs. China, while attributing the fentanyl crisis to the U.S., stated that Washington should acknowledge its goodwill and cooperation on the matter instead.
So, are Chinese regulators truly struggling when it comes to enforcement? Reuters has previously reported that Chinese chemical companies usually know that the chemicals they export may be used to produce fentanyl, but they continue to sell them anyway, and are constantly looking for new ways to get around the law. These businesses use crypto platforms and cryptocurrency payments to develop variant chemicals that bypass restricted lists, and even hide banned items in legitimate cargoes or put false labels on containers to get around the bans.
Jonathan Caulkins, professor of operational research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, said that evasive tactics by drug-makers don’t fully explain the slow response of the Chinese government in combating fentanyl.
“Cracking down on illegal goods and services is like a game of ‘cat and mouse,’ or an ‘arms race.’ When law enforcers take action, criminals immediately adjust their tactics, and law enforcement responds in turn, in an ever-escalating cycle. But China’s response has been rather slow, he said. I don’t know the reasons behind this, but China indeed has low agility and sense of responsibility regarding this issue,” Caulkins said.
The Chinese government’s procrastination on this issue is intentional, and aimed at securing more bargaining chips in negotiations with the U.S., Harding said. “Beijing’s procrastination is a calculated tactic to poison America from the inside out. China has deliberately delayed cooperation as a way of forcing Washington to make concessions on other issues.”
Continued pressure may ineffective
Yet Ferbab-Brown believes that while China has indeed dragged its feet when it comes to expanding its list of controlled substances in the past, Beijing has added nearly 2,000 drug precursor chemicals to the list in the second half of 2024. The reason some fentanyl precursor chemicals aren’t being regulated is mainly because they have legitimate uses in medicine and agriculture, she told RFA in an interview.
She also warned that while China may use the issue of fentanyl as leverage, if the Trump administration continues to use tariffs as a means of pressure, it could lead to a total refusal from Beijing to cooperate on narcotics.
“I think Trump and Xi should focus on building on the achievements of the Biden administration and China during 2024, by doing more joint investigations and expediting the transnational prosecutions of offending Chinese entities... The critical question is how to close the loopholes, and stop Chinese brokers from exporting precursor chemicals to Mexican drug cartels. These chemicals are technically legal, and Chinese suppliers often plead ignorance, claiming not to know that their customers are actually Mexican gangsters,” she said.
Caulkins said the U.S. and China should focus on combating Chinese criminal gangs, a crucial part of the response to the fentanyl crisis, including combating money laundering and drug trafficking, and cracking down on small illegal chemical factories in China. “Combating organized crime that profits from the illegal markets is crucial. While these gangs are getting their financial backing from countries far away from China, their activities still have a corrosive effect on Chinese society,” he said.
To read the original story in Chinese, click here.
