WASHINGTON — As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, attention is increasingly focused on whether the U.S. or China will take a lead on global climate change and energy transition issues. Despite having the world’s largest new energy industry, China has repeatedly utilized its “developing country” status to avoid taking on significant financial responsibilities in international climate negotiations. This “the West pays so China can pollution” stance has sparked dissatisfaction among developing nations.
The U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday announced a new round of tariffs on solar panel imports from Southeast Asian countries as its latest measure to maintain the U.S.‘s competitiveness in the new energy market. Tariffs imposed on some Chinese manufacturers operating there can reach up to 271.45%.
The New York Times reported in early November that Trump’s transition team is ready to introduce a series of executive orders and announcements regarding the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement to allow for more drilling and mining. News site Politico reported that these policies “will give China an advantage not only in climate policy but in broader economic and security disputes,” citing veterans of global climate diplomacy.
However, numerous indications suggest that China still has a long way to go before being internationally recognized as a leader in global climate policy.
The West pays so China can pollute
The recently concluded 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) experienced a significant delay of over 30 hours due to a stalemate in negotiations regarding how to increase climate financing. COP29 eventually reached an agreement, with developed countries pledging to raise climate financing to $300 billion annually by 2035, significantly less than the $1 trillion per year that many poorer countries demanded to adequately address climate change impacts.
China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and the second-largest economy, yet in international climate negotiations, it stands alongside some of the poorest nations, with no obligations to provide financial assistance to developing countries. This stance has long drawn strong dissatisfaction from Western countries such as the U.S. — and some developing countries this year.
This controversy is highlighted in an article titled “The West pays so China can pollute” by Daniel Markind, a columnist for Forbes Magazine.
Balarabe Abbas Lawal, Nigeria’s environment minister, said that China should not be classified in the same category as Nigeria and other African countries. “They should also commit in trying to support us. They should also come and make some contribution (to climate finance for poorer countries),” Lawal told The Guardian, “Those that actually deserve this support are African countries, poor Asian countries and small island states that are facing devastating climate change issues.”
The last plenary session of COP29 was highly tense, as Chinese officials worked to appease representatives from India, Saudi Arabia, and several African countries who voiced dissatisfaction, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.
“China’s role in climate finance is a topic of increasing relevance in light of the COP-29 climate conference,” wrote Scott Moore, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania and former senior researcher at the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, in his paper.
Lucia Green-Weiskel, a former project manager at the U.S.-China Cleantech Center and a visiting assistant professor of political science at Trinity College, said that the debate on whether China should provide funding on par with other major emitters was so intense at COP29 that the entire meeting almost came to a halt. “Developed countries like the United States want China to contribute more!” Green-Weiskel said in an email to Voice of America.
During her time in China, Green-Weiskel founded a greenhouse gas management reporting platform called “Energy and Climate Registry” for corporations in China. She told Voice of America that the significance of the debate goes far beyond a single world climate conference. “Debate on this issue threatens to stall the entire COP (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) process over the past 10 years, not just COP29,″ she said.
The final agreement of the conference “encourages developing countries to contribute on a voluntary basis,” excluding China from the ranks of wealthy countries.
Western countries have been required to provide funding to developing countries due to their roles in the Industrial Revolution, but a recent analysis from the U.K.-based climate change policy research site “Carbon Brief” stated that China’s cumulative emissions had overtaken those from the 27 European Union states. The report shows that China’s historical emissions reached 312GtCO2 (gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2023, overtaking the EU’s 303GtCO2.
No real actions
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), another international research institution on climate change, published a report this week, in which it found that the development of China’s coal and steel industries is inconsistent with the energy transition path that China claimed.
The organization reassessed whether China’s emissions pathways aligned with its climate commitments and the goals of the Paris Agreement, concluding that while China’s investments in clean energy continue to grow, indicators such as total CO2 emissions and total energy consumption are deviating from the track.
Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at the center, told the Financial Times that with the acceleration of China’s economy, emissions may increase again before 2030, which “will make achieving global climate goals almost impossible.”
According to China’s official data, its national energy consumption reached 5.41 billion tons of standard coal in 2022, a 2.9% increase from the previous year, with coal consumption rising by 4.3%. Earlier this year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released the 2023 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, showing that last year’s total energy consumption reached 5.72 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 5.7% from 2022, with coal and crude oil consumption rising by 5.6% and 9.1%, respectively.
Todd Stern, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that currently, China accounts for about one-third of global emissions, far exceeding any other country and representing more emissions than all developed countries combined.
The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which has been published annually since 2005, compiles some of the most important independent monitoring data for tracking countries' climate mitigation performance. In this year’s ranking of 67 countries, China only ranked 55th, putting it “among the very low performing countries.” According to information accompanying the ranking, China received a very low rating in greenhouse gas emissions and energy use categories, while its ratings for renewable energy and climate policy were average.
Stern, who served as the special envoy for climate change and chief climate negotiator for former president Barack Obama from January 2009 to April 2016, had conducted lengthy bilateral and multilateral climate negotiations with China and other countries on the Paris Agreement, and had met with China’s chief negotiator Xie Zhenhua over “hundreds of meetings.”
He told Voice of America that while China sincerely responds to climate change, it lacks real actions, which is also often seen in many other countries. But “I think now the world is watching China’s next moves.”
Stern, as an observer at the Azerbaijan Climate Conference, recalled that while China constructively worked in the last few days to help reach a final agreement, it also opposed some key elements in the Global Stocktake Agreement. Passed at last year’s climate conference, this agreement requires countries to provide a report reflecting their climate actions. “The United States’ diminishing influence does not mean that China will automatically become stronger or take on a leadership role,” Stern said.
He noted that China indeed has the opportunity to take a leading role. “However, that does not mean that China automatically becomes a leader just because the United States steps back from its leadership role. China can only become a leader when it acts like one,” Stern said.
Anders Hove, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, believes that climate is not a priority among China’s leadership, and it has no intention of using climate issues to enhance its global influence. “First, they feel that China has done enough. Second, they believe that whatever commitments China makes, the nation will not get positive media coverage nor recognition it deserves from developed countries.”
China’s dominance can be challenged
The latest tariffs announced by the U.S. on Friday target four Southeast Asian countries: Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. Chinese manufacturers have shifted their production to these countries to evade U.S. tariffs. The U.S. Department of Commerce had imposed preliminary anti-subsidy tariffs on these countries last month.
China currently has the largest and most complete new energy industry in the world, dominating the entire supply chain from raw materials, technology to manufacturing. In contrast, the U.S. only has one big solar company, First Solar. “Even before Trump was elected, the likelihood of the United States becoming a serious competitor (in the new energy industry) was minimal,” Anders Hove from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies told Voice of America.
However, the Chinese energy expert said this does not mean that China’s leading position is secure. “This situation can change any time,” Hove stated.
Hove, who previously served as the project director for the Sino-German Energy Transition Project at the German International Cooperation Agency (GIZ), noted that in the past, entry barriers were high in many sectors. Automakers that led the industry in the 1940s, with some exceptions, are still in the market decades later. Now, this trend is changing. As the main component of electric vehicles is batteries, “startups in this field can develop quality products at lower prices, challenging traditional automakers.”
According to data from startup investment analysis platforms, as of this month, there are as many as 2,333 electric vehicle startups in the U.S. Despite having only one major thin-film photovoltaic component company, the U.S. firm stands out with its patented cadmium telluride technology, which offers significant cost and efficiency advantages over Chinese competitors."
A report from the American Clean Power Association (ACP) stated that progress in the clean energy industry over the past two years has been “remarkable,” including over $500 billion in clean energy investments and more than 160 new or expanded manufacturing facilities, 44% of which are already operational or under construction.
Former U.S. climate change envoy Stern mentioned that in recent years, American businesses have performed exceptionally well in the fields of innovation and green transition, both at home and abroad, and this trend will continue. “These companies will not stop operating during Trump’s four years in office... Many of the measures implemented by the Biden administration will continue to have an impact.”
